There's a regular poster on my favorite political blog, fivethirtyeight.com, and this conservative dude likes to make predictions. That's fine. I like to make predictions. I made some last fall, and I need to revisit them, amend them, and own up to the completely inane ones. Unlike people on TV ever do. Will anyone except for Jon Stewart ever hold pundits accountable?
So this guy on 538 (and yeah, he's clearly a guy, I trust my Guydar) regularly informs us that the left is about to experience, electorally, a "bloodbath of epic proportions." It's his stock phrase. He's been using it since, oh, mid-2008. It's kind of like a tradition now.
That fall turned out OK for the Democrats, most observers agree. Still, Bloodbath Man kept coming back for more, week after week, reminding us that McCain was going to wipe the floor with Obama, that conservatives were going to sweep 2009 elections and take back Congress in 2010.
And several things went well for the GOP in '09, although plenty went wrong for them too. Not a bloodbath for any one side, by any stretch of the imagination.
Then 2010 came around, Teddy Kennedy's old seat went to a Republican, the stock market's tremendous rally fizzled a little, unemployment stubbornly stayed in the high nines, the public had to watch health insurance reform finish winding its ugly way through Congress, poll numbers started to suggest this could be the year of the GOP comeback, especially since midterm elections are historically unkind to the party in power... and everyone wondered if batsh!t crazy ultraconservative poster man was, gulp, re-gulp, right this time.
I mean, the White House press secretary acknowledged the Republicans might even take back the House. He probably didn't use the terms "BLOODBATH OF EPIC PROPORTIONS," but he acknowledged that the outlook is far less than desirable for Democrats.
So with my head planted firmly as ever in the sand, I say, Pffthhththbdt.
(John 1, Spell-check 0.)
This fall isn't going to be that bad for us lefties. We're going to lose some seats in the House, and some in the Senate. But it'll be the typical amount. 16 is the average. There are 70 more D's than R's in the House. It'll be manageable.
Why? Because the Republicans have been the Party of No for too long, and their No-shouting has surfaced in too many places now.
They opposed health care reform, which will only gain in popularity as its features are made known.
They opposed new financial regulation, which is popular across all swaths of America. I love America. Very swathy population.
They opposed, in a very public manner, the extension of unemployment benefits at a time of high unemployment.
They trashed both of Obama's Supreme Court nominees - qualified, intelligent women on a Court that was embarrassingly short on female representation.
They opposed new regulations for credit card companies - new rules that are consumer-friendly, mind you. You can see the new laws on your statements and in the letters from your card issuers, letters that say things like "We are no longer able to raise rates as much as we want, whenever we want" or "Here is exactly how much interest you will pay if you make only the minimum payment each month" or even "We will stop setting your minimum payment so low that your debt grows faster than you can repay it." Good things. Thank the Democrats. The Republicans fought all of that tooth-and-nail and filibuster and all.
They fought the gradual repeal of "don't ask, don't tell," the policy that keeps gays from serving openly in the military, and whose repeal is highly popular, according to many polls.
They have no legislative victories since 2008, which is to be expected, as they control no branch of government, but still, they have only their opposition of the above and of President Obama in general to run on.
It's flimsy. The people who don't like the president already voted against him in '08. The people who like him and most the policies enacted in the past 18 months are unlikely to rebuke him for doing stuff they like.
Yes, the right has enthusiasm on its side. But I'm not sold on the electoral power of the Tea Party, especially when its favored candidates actually appear on the ballot... hey look, that's like a series of 12 posts for this fall. Cool.
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