Specter dispirited with GOP / 5-3-09

And now, for something completely different: some half-baked political analysis!

A couple things come to mind regarding a certain Senator's party switch. (I speak, of course, of last week's decision by PA Republican Arlen Specter to become a Democrat.)

First, the guy may well have done it for self-preservation, as he admitted himself. That doesn't change the fact that a party that loses moderates is going in the wrong direction. We'll see if this move causes the GOP leadership to reach out more to the center or to move even further to the right. (Assuming that's possible.) In any case, I'm going to write a massive post on the plight of the Republican Party later this month. But that issue needs a lot more mulling first.

Second, the hidden effects of Specter's reDemocratification may be greater than the obvious ones. He'll vote to advance many bills and appointments forward in the legislative process, even if he ends up voting against the bill or the appointment... which will move Obama's agenda forward quite a bit faster. Civics lesson: The U.S. Senate can approve a bill or a presidential appointment by a 51-49 vote, but the minority party can vote against "cloture," or against ending debate, and thus prevent a vote from ever taking place. (The Democrats did this plenty under W., who then just pushed his judges through in recess appointments anyway.)

So a committed group of 41 Senators can block whatever they want for a while. But Specter's defection leaves the R's with a scant 40, which will not be enough when Al Franken is seated later this year as the D's 60th Senator. And Specter is in an enviable position in his new digs. He can vote for cloture with his caucus buddies, then vote against the bill itself and campaign next year on his moderateness. With Obama's promised endorsement. In a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1.2 million, yes, million.

(Bonus point: Both of Maine's Senators are moderate Republicans. Keep an eye on them. Just saying.)