With Al Franken set to be sworn in to the U.S. Senate as early as next week, the D's will outnumber the R's 60-40 in that hallowed chamber. That's a filibuster-proof majority.
So, as every living human with cable news will know within two weeks' time, Franken's arrival gives the Democrats carte blanche to ramrod every existing piece of legislation they can dream of through Congress, sending bills authorizing the annihilation of America to the Oval Office, where President-Dictator Barack Karl Lenin Hussein Zedong Castro Kim-Jong-Obama will sign them gleefully before dancing naked atop a tattered, slightly singed, crumpled-up Old Glory. Do I smell weed?
The reality is somewhat different.
Some moderate Democrats are going to balk at bills that sway too far to the left. Some moderate Republicans -- there have to be a few left, the EPA probably has a list somewhere in its Endangered Species files -- will straddle the fence.
As Franken himself said today: "Sixty is a magic number, but it isn't, because we know that we have senators who -- Republicans who are going to vote with the Democrats, with a majority of Democrats on certain votes, and Democrats that are going to vote with majority Republicans on others. So it's not quite a magic number as some people may say. But I hope we do get President Obama's agenda through."
What WILL happen a lot is, Democrats will vote along party lines for the little stuff, the stuff that doesn't break through the force field of "Michael Jackson: Still Dead" 24-hour coverage or through continuous "Brett Favre: Still semi-almost-unretired! Or not! Haha!" loops on ESPN. The little stuff includes things like hundreds and thousands of confirmations of federal court judges and low-level administration appointees. You know, the stuff that needs to happen for the government to function, but is being presently blocked out of spite and childish game-playing.
"Oh, John, you're such a hater. Republicans aren't that petty. They save the filibuster for the big stuff, the controversial bills they need to stop for the good of they country." Except they don't. As the Democrats did from 2002 to 2006, the R's make the majority party fight for every last inch of territory, no matter how insignificant. For better or for worse, that's how the game is played nowadays. Only the GOP lost one of its game pieces. Oops.
Not only that, but as I mentioned in a post not too long ago, centrist Democrats are free to vote against bills that they dislike. But keeping the legislation from coming to the Senate floor at all is a different animal. You have to buck your party's leadership to do so; then you're risking even more than re-election. You're jeopardizing your committee chairmanship. Egads! Anyway, the safe political course, as a moderate, is to vote for cloture (meaning the end of debate) then vote against the bill you dislike... even as said bill passes by a 52-48 vote. Look for that outcome to happen plenty of times.
P.S.: Now that the 2008 election season has officially ended, that means 2010 has officially begun... and my money right now is on the D's INCREASING their Senate majority to 63 or 64. That would be true filibuster-proof material. But don't take my word for it -- go to Lord of the Poll Dance Nate Silver. Silver publishes, on his site fivethirtyeight.com, monthly rankings that show the most contested Senate races. And four of the top five races feature incumbent Republicans. Month after month after month. A new ranking comes out any day now. Cheers!
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