Observacations, Vol. II / 1-18-11

Second in my back-to-work three-part series.

Part Un: Politix. Soo yesterday.

Part Deux: Sports. I would link to it, but you're reading it, and that would be 11 percent too silly for even me.

Part Trois: Musings on God and god.

Then we (I) will be all caught up after our (my) five (five) weeks off.

FIRST AND TEN, EIGHT AND TEN

After the NFL switches from a 16-game to an 18-game schedule (and the move is inevitablish, given that the owners would make more money and the players' union would negotiate for more roster spots), a team will finish its season 8-10. Obviously. And yet, that team -- the future Cleveland Browns -- will not be the first-ever pro football team to do so. The Seahawks already pulled it off. Poor Cleveland. Can't even lose with distinction.

Scenarios by which a team arrives at 8-10, given that it takes a winning record to make the playoffs every year except 2010: Zero. A team that qualifies at 8-8 can't lose twice in the playoffs -- it takes a team with nine regular-season losses to finish 8-10. And only once in a full NFL season has a losing team won a division. That was 16 days ago. Yay Hawks! History! Notoriety!

Not only that, but a 7-9 division winner would have to win its first playoff game (against an actual good team) for it to reach 8-9 before losing its next one to complete the uncharted course to 8-10.

Fun fact: Had the Seahawks lost the Super Bowl -- stifle your laugh! They could have won that stinkin' Bears game, which would have set up a Packers-Seahawks NFC Championship game in Seattle. Are you going to bet against them at Qwest? So. As I was saying, had they reached, and gotten properly annihilated in, the Super Bowl, they would have ended the season 10-10.

So to recap: When you're asked, as the final question of a rousing game of Trivial Pursuit (non-holographic version) in your retirement home in the year 2059, which pro football team was the first-ever to post an 8-10 record, you'll remember (ha!) to answer Seattle. You're welcome. Pass the Jello.

26 DAYS LATER

Pitchers and catchers report in 26 days. For the Mariners, the stench of last season can't dissipate too soon. Picked by many to win a weak-looking division, they finished dead last instead, and along the way, managed to score fewer runs than any other DH-carrying team, ever. For a brief look at how rotten the year was, click here.

So, to address the blood-gushing head wound that was 2010, they made this litany of significant moves:

...

That's it. No new starting pitchers, no big bats -- one stud part-time defender and one medium-sized bat and one serviceable catcher is the extent of the renovation.

No, the M's didn't technically go for the big upgrade; instead, they opted to pinch a giant loaf containing the worthless Casey Kotchman, Jose Lopez, Milton Bradley (will be cut within days), Josh Wilson (back to AAA) and Rob Johnson, who led the league in passed balls by a wide margin despite playing only half the time.

Instead, they'll count on the young guys and the nondescript new guys -- 1B Justin Smoak, LF Michael Saunders, IF Brendan Ryan, 2011 3B Chone Figgins and not 2010 2B Chone Figgins, C Miguel Olivo, DH Jack Cust, plus eventual 2B Dustin Ackley -- to make us forget last season's unwatchability.

And to a certain extent, it'll work. They'll win far more than 61 games, because the pitching will be as good as 2010, the defense will be better, probably by a wide margin, and finally, the offense will necessarily improve. You can't get worse than the worst ever. Probability won't allow it; the power of regression is too strong, almost all of the time.

The 2011 squad will win at least 78 games. And with money to spend in 2012 when a couple big contracts come off the books, the future is bright. Don't buy any shades just yet. But these guys are better than they look at first glance. I promise.

VIOLENCE, SILENCE, SALIENCE

So now, I find myself wondering if I have a moral compass at all when it comes to sports figures in trouble.

I've been in homes where parents abuse their kids verbally and physically. Traveling to 30 homes each week, with a clientele constantly in flux, lets me see a broad range of middle- and upper-class families in action, and sometimes their best behavior deserts them. So I've discovered I'm content to charge abusive parents a fee to teach their children, because their money is just as good as the next family's.

Yet I'm inclined to disapprove of my team hiring an assistant with a history of violent behavior. Yet I want a guy who pled no contest to some ugly charges to get a chance to work in his field, for now, at least for now. Even yetter, I agree with people who want their favorite club to release a prominent baseball player arrested for assault just earlier today. And yettest of all, when this guy did this in a playoff game, I and 67,000 of my closest friends celebrate so raucously we cause an earthquake.

Sometimes this fairness-justice-punishment-redemption-second-chance thing we call "life" is hard to sort out, especially when rooting interests and mercy and employment rights and even humility get in the way. Darn you, nuance! Darn you, forgiveness! Darn you, blind spots! Darn you all to gosh-darn heck already. Gosh.

Still in Sea-Shock / 9-29-10

The Seattle Seahawks, your favorite sports team of all time, just won a game in which they:

A) Allowed 379 yards of total offense. In the second half. That's basically impossible to do whether you're winning or losing, or playing any sort of defense or offense at all. The top three performances for most yards gained in a game by one team were all set in the 40's and 50's, and they're all in the 680-750 yard range.

(In essence, last Sunday, the Seahawks were the worst team, defensively, in the history of the sport, as measured by yards allowed, for a half. Their only competition is teams from 60 years ago. Those teams' dead players would have done a better job last Sunday at Qwest.)

B) Gained 10 yards of offense through the air in the second half and 26 yards total after halftime. Yes, the Chargers outgained the Hawks 379-26 in half number 2. Yeah. 379-26. That's correct. A factor of 14.6 to 1, you were about to say.

C) Fumbled away a sure touchdown less than one yard from the goal line, resulting in a touchback. Those are worth no points. They sound like a touchdown, except they are a million billionty times worse.

D) Scored zero points after a second and goal from the 2 with 20 seconds left in the half.

E) Allowed a safety and a two-point conversion and threw an interception at the goal line.

(None of those events in C), D) or E) overlapped, by the way. They were all separate events.)

They shouldn't have won the game, except that they should have. Because they also:

A) Returned two kickoffs for touchdowns. Again, in the second half. Leon Washington scored twice and finished with 253 return yards. He's still sucking on oxygen as we speak.

B) Sacked Philip Rivers four times, hit him nine more, and tipped or intercepted eight of his attempts.

C) Were the beneficiary of five San Diego turnovers, including three fumbles. (They scored a measly 10 points off those giveaways, but still, this is the positive part of the post, so shut up already, me.)

D) Picked off the potential game-tying or game-winning TD pass with 10 seconds left.

E) Had 67,000 screaming fans behind them who forced two false starts and two delay of game penalties on the Chargers' last possession.

That was the most entertaining-infuriating-frustrating-exhilirating-undeserved-deserved-heart-stopping win I've seen. Ever. In any sport.

I don't think this team is very good. It imploded in the second half, and it absolutely could not defend once its top corner, linebacker and defensive lineman left with injuries. Pete Carroll donated three or seven points to San Diego with an epic mismanagement of the closing seconds of the first half. It lucked out by winning two out of three instant replay reviews. And it won't always get Leon to generate 14 points all by himself every week. (Duh.)

Here's the box. Here's the best recap I read so far. Here's to a boring win next Sunday in St. Louis.

Two and Two / 9-10-10

Realistically, that's about what we can expect out of the Seattle Seahawks this season. Two wins, and two losses. Mmmm? What's that you say? And as for the other dozen games? Bpthfffff. Who knows?

I'm somewhat knowledgeable about sports, somewhat able to tell when a team is going to suck and when it's going to unsuck. Most the time.

This Hawks squad leaves me perplexed. Pergoogleplexed. (There are lots and lots of English-speaking people in the world, and lots of them say goofy things, so I'm going to conclude that very, very VERY sadly, there is a thirtysomething dad out there who has also invented that exact same word. He's a dork and a loser, whereas I am supercool.)

Who's to say how this season will be any different than the last, when they went 5-11 and looked exactly as bad as their record?

I'm to say that things are different.

The defense that looked like it was playing 8-on-11 last year will be better organized, more healthy and better in pass defense this season.

The reliable QB who got hurt and missed half the season will play more games this season.

The offensive line that lost 14 left tackles to injury last year (I joke, but the Hawks did use their fifth-string guy for a while) will perform better, with the development of new blood and improved coaching.

If those three improvements hold, and the division gets even weaker with Arizona's perceived step back (they have no quarterback or receivers left), then I could see Seattle picking up two or three more wins than last year.

But at the same time, there's the stunning turnover from '09 that weighs on my mind, and I find myself wondering, with half the 53-man roster gone, including important contributors like T.J. and Josh Wilson, will there be any semblance of continuity? And if, Tao forbid, anyone important gets re-hurt, could this team be two or three wins WORSE than last year?

And then, there are these 3,256 other questions left to be answered:

(I'll pick just 10.)

315. Will left tackle Russell Okung ever see the field this year?

666. Why the h*ll did our offensive line coach, widely regarded as the best in the business, quit a week before the opener?

777. What if everyone stays healthy? Is 10-6 out of the question?

1,002. Is Golden Tate for real?

1,003. Is Aaron Curry for real? Will he ever be?

1,974. Who exactly will be rushing the passer?

1,976. Who exactly will be rushing the football?

2,011. What if Whitehurst takes more snaps than Hasselbeck?

2,987. Is 8-8 enough to win the division?

3,256. You know, Jim Mora was a pretty good college coach too.

That's all I've got. Go Hawks!

EDIT after Sunday's season opener: The O-line looked decent, the receivers were better than good, we created a pass rush, Hasselbeck made only one mistake all day, lots of guys carried the ball in acceptable fashion, and the rest of the division looks awful. Carroll completely outcoached Singletary, and now I have to aggressively remind myself: IT'S JUST ONE GAME dude.

Spring Bowl / 1-22-10

Remember the NFL's Pro Bowl?

Nah, me neither. I almost never watch it. For many years, it was held, rumor has it, on the week following the Big Game, in Hawai'i. Great way to end the season. Except everyone everywhere was all footballed out by then, including the Pro Bowlers themselves, so players skipped it, a bunch of injured superstar players skipped it out of necessity, and it's a freakin' exhibition. So lots of folks copied my original idea and failed to tune in to the game. In response to that well-deserved apathy, this year the league placed the Pro Bowl a week BEFORE the title game, in an effort to draw more attention and coverage.

Only now, a similar set of problems remains. It's still an exhibition. Injured players are still out. And players involved in the championship game get a pass... which could mean 15 players, or 20 percent of the entire roster, could opt out if Indianapolis and Minnesota win on Sunday. That's a joke.

Well, I have a drastic solution, which may not help one iota, but if the patient is terminal, it's not as if a few sessions of experimental treatment are going to harm the prognosis. It's been said before: Let's try that crazy thing. It'll either kill him or he'll get better. (Why yes, I have watched four seasons of "House." Why do you ask?)

Play the game in the spring. In mid-April. Yes, two-plus months AFTER the Big Game. (I can't even type the words "Super Bowl" without express written consent of the NFL, or my pants will be sued right off of me, which wouldn't be that terrible anyway since the webcam is broken. But anyway, enough Super Bowl chat.) Mid-April also happens to be four months before the preseason. It's right in the middle of nothing, sort of, for the players at least.

Because granted, this little thing called "the draft" is in late April, so some front offices like to use April to, you know, prepare 23 hours a day to select the wrong guy. That being said, several teams, including the suddenly inept Seahawks, hold April mini-camps, so many players are accustomed to some action that month. And scheduling the game before the draft allows for panicky teams to react a freak injury to their star left tackle, an event which, I'm told, can happen during actual football plays.

And now we're getting to the real problem with the Pro Bowl. Football players get hurt. The game is violent and demanding, even at the 50 percent speed utilized by Pro Bowl participants. If you're going to hold an exhibition, it needs to be as far removed from the season as possible, both to maximize participation and maximize potential recovery time.

And our collective national football hangover is usually done by April. Players have enjoyed multiple months off, and only a small amount of them have been arrested for shooting people. Baseball's opening days are through, the NBA and NHL have just embarked on their endless playoffs. The weather is even nice in places other than Hawai'i, Florida and California. You could have the game in almost any NFL stadium, even those places deemed "unfit" for the Big Game. (I'm not bitter or anything. Well, yes, I'm incensed.)

If you're going to play it at all, try it in April. Not that I'll watch anyway.

P.S. Super Bowl Super Bowl Super Bowl Super Bowl ... Bite me Goodell!

Ten Free Predictions / 9-22-09

No charge.

Events are predicted in order of occurrence, with numbers reversed because I'm a bit of a weirdo.

10. Health care reform will pass, without a public health insurance option, but with a mechanism to activate government insurance if certain conditions are met.

9. You or your significant other or one of your siblings will get H1N1. You/He/She will spend a day in bed then be fine.

8. The Seahawks will finish the year 8-8, "tied" with the 49ers atop the NFC West, except San Fran will win the division lamely on a tie-breaker.

7. A major cell phone provider will fail and be gobbled up by a competitor by early 2011. (I'm looking right at you, Sprint. And glancing sideways at you, T-Mobile. And wishing it were you, Verizon. Bite me, at&t.)

6. The Dow Jones will reach and surpass its former closing-bell peak of 14,164.53 sometime in the fall of 2011.

5. The Mariners will reach the 2011 World Series. No further details provided at this time.

4. Barack Hussein Obama will coast to re-election as President of the United States of America. Coast, I tell you. Reverse Reagan '84 style.

3. The Republican Party will split in half sometime in or after 2013. A chain reaction will ensue, culminating in the split of the Democratic Party and the emergence of the Green Party as a non-negligible political force. Five parties are in our future. Don't try and stop it.

2. A major terrorist attack on par with or exceeding the carnage of 9/11 will take place on American soil in the teen years of this century. Tragically, we may have to get used to one of these per decade, as our government continues to do nowhere near enough to stem the tide of anti-Americanism.

1. Some time after 2030, retired government officials, prominent scholars and brilliant political scientists will converge on Philadelphia for a Constitutional Convention during which they will update the Constitution to ensure its survival in an age quite different than 1787.

Think again / 7-5-09

Steve McNair, renowned quarterback, died from a gunshot wound to the head this past weekend. And as the investigation into his death intensifies, it brought an oft-discussed issue to the forefront: why do guys from the NFL always seem to get into trouble?

And it happens everywhere. Locally, Seahawks star Lofa Tatupu was busted for a DUI last year, right about the time former Hawks star Koren Robinson had finished drinking and driving himself out of the league. Seahawks announcer and record-setting QB Warren Moon had already managed to get himself arrested on his own set of DUI charges near Christmas 2007. By the way, I'm going to leave out the rest of the Hawks' trouble, for space reasons. Away from Seattle, Hall of Famer Bruce Smith joined that same stupid club earlier this year. The capper: in March, Cleveland receiver Donte Stallworth killed a guy while driving drunk.

And then there's Michael Vick. Ugh... I don't even want to link to him anymore, I'd rather just forget he existed.

Wait... didn't O.J. play a down of football here or there?

So what kind of animal house is the NFL running anyway?

Not a very efficient one, I'd say, if the goal is to get guys into heaps of trouble. Pro football players are FAR LESS LIKELY to be arrested than the general population. No typo. Proof:

"We find two striking observations. First, we note that the NFL rates [of arrest] are less than half the general population rates for both whites and blacks. Second, we find that the NFL fraction is strikingly close for the two racial groups. Thus, even though our initial assessment was that the NFL rates looked very high, we find them well below the rates for the general population."

(Got that from a study published at Duke University in 2007. Done by scientist-type humans.)

LESS THAN HALF!

Well, that's just one study... except another one done by an intrepid reporter last year duplicated the results. 1 in 45 NFL players arrested in his research, compared with 1 of 23 of the rest of us.

So I'm hoping you'll forgive the caps, and twice at that, but I get really sick of people dumping on athletes who don't deserve it. Especially with the stickiness of racial stereotypes right beneath the surface of the conversation. (USA Today put 41 arrested NFL players on its covers throughout 2007. Care to guess how many were black? No, more. Higher. Almost there. Yep, bingo, 39.)

Can you be pissed at Tatupu for making an idiotic choice? Sure. Can you lament that McNair associated with the wrong people? Your call. Can you opine that oft-convicted cornerback Adam "Pac-Man" Jones is a complete waste of human cell tissue and all his talent should be transferred to someone who won't throw it away? Please do.

But cool the stereotypes, already.

(I'm really, really, really ready for some football.)

Michael Vick: Not in my doghouse / 5-21-09

Just in case you've been living at 123 Subterranean Ave., Underrock, Earth (ZIP code: -83686), you'll be pleased/aggrieved to learn that Mike Vick is out of the slammer. Yeah, the guy who used to be the NFL's next big thing, the guy who was supposed to revolutionize the QB position, the best thing since high fructose corn syrup, the guy on the cover of Madden 2004, that guy. He got out on Wednesday.

"Didn't he just serve time for running a cockfighting ring?"

It was dogfighting. But close enough. He just completed a relaxing 19-month stint at Leavenworth. The one in Kansas, where the federal pen is. Not the German-themed tourist trap in Central Washington. (Though there are striking similarities.)

So the guy's a gifted athlete. He's a free agent. Emphasis on free. But NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is certain to place certain, um, conditions on his return to the league. You might say, tastelessly, that Michael Vick has been (ahem) put on a short leash.

Where does he land? The Raiders have a reputation for signing players with checkered pasts. The Seahawks' new head coach was Vick's coach in Atlanta. The Falcons' fan base still has feelings for him.

Well, let's kick it off at home: Michael Vick has an exactly 0.0 percent chance of landing in Seattle. This region is known for its lovery of dogs. ("Love" was just too weak of a word, it needed a suffix or two.) Seattle has the highest rate of dog treat bakeries per capita in the nation. Not. Happ. Ening. There would be a revolt.

My personal opinion is that a team will take a chance on him. He's too explosive of a talent for EVERYONE to pass on him. And there are too few good QB's in the league as it is. Or someone will plug him in at receiver or kick returner. (New England. Minnesota. Chicago. Jacksonville. Miami. One of those places. For what it's worth.)

And swiftly, he'll screw it up somehow. Vick's a classic knucklehead: he was busted for pot possession AFTER being hit with the dogfighting charges. You know me, I'm enthusiastically in favor of legalizing pot. But it takes a special kind of stupid to tempt fate by lighting up while awaiting other charges. And there's no indication he would have stopped with the caninicide anytime soon. Any regret, any remorse he expressed at sentencing -- or since -- is purely due to his getting caught, not a product of his conscience.

He'll last a year or so. Then a DUI or an assault charge will do him in. And we'll remember him as a flash-in-the-pan, when he could have been so much more.