So, yeah, oops. That prediction was meant for entertainment purposes only, and I hope you took it that way. Turns out Romney and Santorum tied at 24.6 percent, with Paul behind at 21.5 percent. (The men at the top each scored six delegates in the nomination race; Paul nabbed four as a consolation prize.)
Now let me mitigate my giant oops a little. In the second half of the early post, I explained why a Paul-Santorum-Romney-everyone else finish creates problems for Republicans who want to win in November. It divides the party into about one fifth libertarian, two fifths TP/Evangelical, and one fifth moderate/establishment.
Well, although the top three didn't finish in the order I anticipated, look at these aggregated results:
Paul: 21.5 percent. About one fifth.
Santorum/Perry/Bachmann: 40.0 percent. About exactly precisely two fifths.
Romney/Gingrich/Hunstman: 38.5 percent. Yeah, you found the last two fifths.
The first group doesn't want to vote for the other two in the fall. The second and third groups are equal in representation but their agendas don't match. Whoever the nominee is will have some decrepit bridges to mend, because the other wing of the party will make its reservations known. And these won't be Obama-Clinton-2008-style reservations -- those two Democrats showed little to no policy differences throughout the primary season. No, the chasm is huge in the GOP. Santorum and Romney might easily belong to altogether different parties, from the stark difference in their political records.
At this point, final Iowa numbers are pretty to look at, but also pretty insignificant. The Republicans still have a faction problem even if Romney pulls out a 20-vote win (out of more than 120,000 votes) or Santorum edges the Massachusetts Silver Spooner by an fetus's fingernail.
And Paul's 21 percent aren't closing shop anytime soon.
The voting also confirmed a fun trend that polling suggested throughout 2011: Romney has a 25 percent glass ceiling outside of the Northeast. Interesting to see if that changes after a couple decorative candidates drop out. (Yes, Rick, yes, Michele, I'm talking directly to you, and thanks for reading.)
All in all, good entertainment tonight. Which reminds me, I still owe you guys an answer to "If not Romney, then who?" and "If not Gingrich, then who?" and "If not Paul, then who?" That's coming soon too. Spoiler (I love spoilers): It ends with "If not Santorum, then who?"
[UPDATE, 11:58 p.m. PDT: Romney 30,015, Santorum 30,007 is tonight's "final score." Wow. The top three finishers all get seven delegates apiece. Which is splendid.]
[UPDATE, 11:58 p.m. PDT: Romney 30,015, Santorum 30,007 is tonight's "final score." Wow. The top three finishers all get seven delegates apiece. Which is splendid.]
Romney cracked 30 percent in just five Iowa counties.
ReplyDeletePaul reached 30 percent in eight counties.
Santorum crested 30 percent in 27, yes, 27 different counties.
Interesting.
That 30% statistic shows the urban/rural divide. Romney did best in the cities, which always tend more liberal.
ReplyDeleteWith Bachmann out, I assume her supporters will mostly switch to Santorum (or Perry for a bit). It's hard for me to see how things will progress. It's interesting to me that more TP people don't latch onto Paul. If Santorum/Perry fade, will more of them go Paul or Romney/Gingrich? Are they more idealogical or more pragmatic? I really don't know. My guess is that Santorum has the best chance at nomination at this point, but what do I know?
Noah -
ReplyDeleteSpot-on about the rural/urban divide. I went county-by-county on the Iowa map to tabulate my numbers, and that's exactly what happened.
With Perry and Bachmann out, I'd expect to see the candidates benefit in this order
1. Santorum
2. Paul
3. Gingrich
4. Romney
Hard to spin those guys leaving as good news for Mitt. Of course, we'll have to wait until SC or FL to find out, because NH is its own animal.
by a fetus' fingernail. That's an interesting measure to use when speaking of Romney. Love it!
ReplyDelete