And still, not one of them will be the Republican nominee. Spoiler: The nominee will come from the list three paragraphs ahead.
Quick summary of my rationale: There's too much flip and way too much flop in Mitt Romney, and a quarter of his base thinks he's in a cult. There's too much baggage in Newt Gingrich; really, there's too much Newt in Newt Gingrich. Or not enough room in Newt for all the Newt in Newt's head. Something. Meanwhile, Ron Paul's in for the long haul, but he's not going to get more than 20 percent of the delegates -- which is enough to make him a serious player, but not nearly enough to win the prize. And Santorum, as will have been discussed in a future post sometime in the future, is distasteful to anyone whose political ideology falls left of Jerry Falwell. He can't win the general, and thus can't win the nomination. Republican primary voters and party bigwigs are far, far, far too pragmatic to allow an unelectable standard-bearer, especially when the incumbent president is less than popular and the economy is less than vibrant.
Well, those are the only four guys officially running. And yet, the nominee has to be someone else, someone who hasn't won a primary or a caucus, someone who has not been mortally wounded in the campaign thus far. So, also out are Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Jon Hunstman and Herman Cain.
A moment of silence seems appropriate. But screw that. The spoiler alert is expiring. Ready? Potential nominees include, in mostly alphabetical order: Chris Christie. Mitch Daniels. Elizabeth Dole. Mike Huckabee. Tim Pawlenty. Marco Rubio. Jeb Bush, too. (Yes, Jeb. I know. I know. I KNOW. You know I know. Everyone knows. Still.) And, uh, yeah, Sarah Palin.
If I had to rank them, from most to least likely to leave the 2012 Republican Convention (Official Motto: "Made You Look!") as the nominee, I'd have to go with:
1. Pawlenty
2. Huckabee
3. Dole
4. Rubio
5. Christie
6. Daniels
7. Bush
8. Palin
9. Someone Else
I reserve the right to alter these percentages after a few more primaries and caucuses. With every passing day, Someone Else rises in the polls anyway. But let's start from the bottom of the barrel.
Palin: Unelectable, yet also immortal. No human device can slay her. So should you ever cross her off the list? No matter the list? Yeah no. Learn your lesson already. Verdict: LESS THAN 1 PERCENT.
Bush: From Florida and still immensely popular there. That's all I have to say on that topic. The other things I would say have already been thought by you. Verdict: 5 PERCENT.
Daniels: Moderate from Indiana. Appealing to all wings of the party. Probably saving himself for 2016, but lust can broadside even the best intentions. Verdict: 5 PERCENT.
Christie: Same boat as Daniels. Well, no, different boat. A sturdier boat, I'd say. (Yes, that's a fat joke. I am not a proud man.) Verdict: 5 PERCENT.
Rubio: Here's where things start to get interesting. The Rubio Resume: two years in the Senate, young rising star, fresh face, likeable, great backstory, especially appealing to an important demographic group, chance to make some electoral history. Sound familiar? He'd have to overcome all the experience-based criticisms lobbed at that Obama dude four years ago, only from the other side. Entertainment value sizeably increased by watching his defenders turn into actual pretzels, fending off the same attacks they used in '08. Verdict: 10 PERCENT.
Dole: Just a gut feeling here. Total hunch. Don't have much to base it on, except having seen her name in the news from time to time in the last few weeks. She ran briefly in 2000, dropped out before the primaries, and her wikipedia page is a fascinating read. Problem is, she'd be 76 at the convention. Patriotic age, but advanced age, and that plays poorly. Verdict: 20 PERCENT.
Huckabee: Basically tied Romney in the '08 Contest To Earn The Right To Get Destroyed By The Democrat. Populist social conservative. Why is he not running again? Oh yeah, Fox "News" money. That only goes so far. Verdict: 25 PERCENT.
And, finally, Pawlenty: Undamaged goods. Dropped out before Iowa, so has not been numerically rejected by the voters. Yes, he had trouble in polling throughout 2011, and yes, he had trouble fund-raising, but at a hung convention where the party elites are just trying to avoid disaster, he's an ex-governor of a blue state, a man with few skeletons, if any, in the closet, an electable guy, not unattractive to independents, a guy whose worst fault is blandness. In short, Pawlenty's the exact opposite of disaster. Verdict: 30 PERCENT.
Pressed for an answer right now, I'd say the nominee will be either Pawlenty or Huckabee. But this election season has been quite instructive in that it's taught me to expect the unexpected... sigh. Swell. Just swell. Now what can I find to put in the "unexpected" box?
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