If Not These Guys, Then Who? Glad You Asked / 01-21-12

Three states have voted. Three men have won.

And still, not one of them will be the Republican nominee. Spoiler: The nominee will come from the list three paragraphs ahead.

Quick summary of my rationale: There's too much flip and way too much flop in Mitt Romney, and a quarter of his base thinks he's in a cult. There's too much baggage in Newt Gingrich; really, there's too much Newt in Newt Gingrich. Or not enough room in Newt for all the Newt in Newt's head. Something. Meanwhile, Ron Paul's in for the long haul, but he's not going to get more than 20 percent of the delegates -- which is enough to make him a serious player, but not nearly enough to win the prize. And Santorum, as will have been discussed in a future post sometime in the future, is distasteful to anyone whose political ideology falls left of Jerry Falwell. He can't win the general, and thus can't win the nomination. Republican primary voters and party bigwigs are far, far, far too pragmatic to allow an unelectable standard-bearer, especially when the incumbent president is less than popular and the economy is less than vibrant.

Well, those are the only four guys officially running. And yet, the nominee has to be someone else, someone who hasn't won a primary or a caucus, someone who has not been mortally wounded in the campaign thus far. So, also out are Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Jon Hunstman and Herman Cain.

A moment of silence seems appropriate. But screw that. The spoiler alert is expiring. Ready? Potential nominees include, in mostly alphabetical order: Chris Christie. Mitch Daniels. Elizabeth Dole. Mike Huckabee. Tim Pawlenty. Marco Rubio. Jeb Bush, too. (Yes, Jeb. I know. I know. I KNOW. You know I know. Everyone knows. Still.) And, uh, yeah, Sarah Palin.

If I had to rank them, from most to least likely to leave the 2012 Republican Convention (Official Motto: "Made You Look!") as the nominee, I'd have to go with:

1. Pawlenty

2. Huckabee

3. Dole

4. Rubio

5. Christie

6. Daniels

7. Bush

8. Palin

9. Someone Else

I reserve the right to alter these percentages after a few more primaries and caucuses. With every passing day, Someone Else rises in the polls anyway. But let's start from the bottom of the barrel.

Palin: Unelectable, yet also immortal. No human device can slay her. So should you ever cross her off the list? No matter the list? Yeah no. Learn your lesson already. Verdict: LESS THAN 1 PERCENT.

Bush: From Florida and still immensely popular there. That's all I have to say on that topic. The other things I would say have already been thought by you. Verdict: 5 PERCENT.

Daniels: Moderate from Indiana. Appealing to all wings of the party. Probably saving himself for 2016, but lust can broadside even the best intentions. Verdict: 5 PERCENT.

Christie: Same boat as Daniels. Well, no, different boat. A sturdier boat, I'd say. (Yes, that's a fat joke. I am not a proud man.) Verdict: 5 PERCENT.

Rubio: Here's where things start to get interesting. The Rubio Resume: two years in the Senate, young rising star, fresh face, likeable, great backstory, especially appealing to an important demographic group, chance to make some electoral history. Sound familiar? He'd have to overcome all the experience-based criticisms lobbed at that Obama dude four years ago, only from the other side. Entertainment value sizeably increased by watching his defenders turn into actual pretzels, fending off the same attacks they used in '08. Verdict: 10 PERCENT.

Dole: Just a gut feeling here. Total hunch. Don't have much to base it on, except having seen her name in the news from time to time in the last few weeks. She ran briefly in 2000, dropped out before the primaries, and her wikipedia page is a fascinating read. Problem is, she'd be 76 at the convention. Patriotic age, but advanced age, and that plays poorly. Verdict: 20 PERCENT.

Huckabee: Basically tied Romney in the '08 Contest To Earn The Right To Get Destroyed By The Democrat. Populist social conservative. Why is he not running again? Oh yeah, Fox "News" money. That only goes so far. Verdict: 25 PERCENT.

And, finally, Pawlenty: Undamaged goods. Dropped out before Iowa, so has not been numerically rejected by the voters. Yes, he had trouble in polling throughout 2011, and yes, he had trouble fund-raising, but at a hung convention where the party elites are just trying to avoid disaster, he's an ex-governor of a blue state, a man with few skeletons, if any, in the closet, an electable guy, not unattractive to independents, a guy whose worst fault is blandness. In short, Pawlenty's the exact opposite of disaster. Verdict: 30 PERCENT.

Pressed for an answer right now, I'd say the nominee will be either Pawlenty or Huckabee. But this election season has been quite instructive in that it's taught me to expect the unexpected... sigh. Swell. Just swell. Now what can I find to put in the "unexpected" box?

The Complete Works of the 2012 GOP Nomination Campaign (abridged) / 11-8-11

[The curtain comes up. A bare stage, save for a television set and a dozen people, milling about.]

GUY IN CORNER: Not Mitt

PERSON WITH CHURRO: We love you Saaarah, oh yes we do

GUY IN CORNER: Not Mitt

QUIET PERSON (lip synching): /huntsman/

GIRL (skipping across stage): Christie, Christie, Christie

PERSON WITH CHURRO: And you too Michele

BOY (marching, carrying sign across stage, chanting): Ron Paul, that is all... Ron Paul, that is all...

GUY IN CORNER: Not Mitt

PERSON WITH BIBLE: I <3 Huckabee

PERSON BACKSTAGE (yelling): Santorum!

QUIET PERSON: /huntsman/

PERSON WITH CHURRO: Saaaaraaaaah Palin (clap clap clapclapclap)

TWO GUYS IN CORNER: Not Mitt

CRAZY PERSON (dancing, chanting): Obamacare Obamacare Obamanation Obamacare

THREE GUYS IN CORNER: Not Mitt

CRAZY PERSON (still dancing): Birth Certificate!

PERSON WITH CHURRO: Obamacare

PERSON WITH BIBLE: Obamanation

TWO GUYS IN CORNER: Not Mitt

CRAZY PERSON: (unintelligible yelling)

NOW JUST ONE GUY IN CORNER: Not Mitt

HERMAN CAIN: Me

BOY: Ron Paul, that is all...

RICK PERRY: I'm not George Bush

GIRL (skipping, not running): Christie, Christie, Christie

OLD GUY: Newwwwwt

THREE GUYS IN CORNER: Not Mitt

FOX NEWS: Cain Is Able

EVERYONE (running to TV): oooooooooooo

FOX NEWS: Not Mitt

FOX NEWS: Cain Is Able

EVERYONE (droning): Cain Is Able Cain Is Able

BOY (oblivious): Ron Paul, that is all... Ron Paul, that is all...

PERSON WITH CHURRO (weeping): I dropped my churro

PERSON BACKSTAGE: Santor-- (loud banging noise) -- owww hey owww

HERMAN CAIN: Nineninenine

FOX NEWS: Not Mitt

EVERYONE: Not Mitt

CAIN: Nineninenine

CAIN: NinenineNIIINE

PERSON WITH BIBLE: I still <3 Huckabee

FOX NEWS: Shut up

CAIN: Nineninenine

FOUR WOMEN: Nein! Nein! Nein!

FOX NEWS: Shut up

FOX NEWS: Cain is Able

EVERYONE: Wait a second

RICK PERRY: I'm not Rick Perry

EVERYONE: Not Mitt

MITT ROMNEY: I'm not Mitt Romney

BOY: Ron Paul, that is all...

GIRL (slowing down): Christie, Christie, Chris --

OLD GUY: Newwwwwt

CRAZY PERSON (sitting): Sad

PERSON WITH CHURRO (hanging head): Sad

GIRL (walking off stage): Sad

HERMAN CAIN: Hey baby

FOX NEWS:

RICK PERRY: I'm not Mitt Romney

GUY IN CORNER: Not Mitt... ?

EVERYONE: Mitt?

FOX NEWS:

FOX NEWS:

FOX NEWS: Aw nuts

QUIET PERSON: /i told you/

[Curtain descends.]

BOY (still marching with sign, still chanting): Ron Paul, that is all... Ron Paul, that is all...

144 Or Less, Vol. IX / 2-18-11

You know who's not dominating the airwaves right now?

Sarah P., that's who. (Isn't.)

We saw her a-plenty in 2010, endorsing candidates, writing "books" (that should help with future pesky gotcha-type questions!!), feuding with her son-in-and-out-of-almost-law, railing against the Ovalest Socialist, being lampooned, doing "reality" shows, and generally being the life of the (tea) party.

This year, not so much. Which is great. I mean, she has a large, needy family and all, so good for her.

She also has been printing money. Gobs of money.

I guessed last year that the main reason she quit that inconvenient day job of hers was to cash in while she could. And looky here: various news outlets estimate she made between $12 and $14 million in 2010.

Again, good for her. But what's her next move now?

Please run, Sarah. Pretty please.

(Word count: 144)

Please Expalin / 11-04-10

I'm not succumbing to early-onset dyslexia.

No, I just need something expalined to me. What is it that makes a former Alaska governor so attractive? Not physically, of course. I mean politically, yeah, that's what I mean, uh huh.

It is, though. I'm no longer trying to be cute here (at least for a few paragraphs). I'm posing an honest question.

What is it that makes you believe Sarah Palin has anything to offer as a candidate for high political office?

I get that she's a symbol. She represents right-wing ideas. She stands for smaller, more efficient government. Although her track record belies such a statement, she subscribes to fiscal conservatism.

I get that she's a woman in what is largely a man's arena -- right-wing politics. If you're into identity politics, she brings a different perspective to male-dominated debates.

I get that she's clever and snappy and full of attitude, and she considers herself a maverick. Those can be fine qualities in a public figure.

I get that she's clearly one of the pre-eminent Tea Party personalities. And God knows we need a third party ASAP. (Sadly, even God can't break the stranglehold the R's and D's have on our country.)

But what makes her palatable as a potential executive or legislator? I've always figured a serious politician has to be more than a symbol -- that there has to be some substance underneath all that coiffed hair and all those perfect teeth. And finding something below her surface has been a challenge, for me, that is.

So what does she bring to the table that makes her a viable member of the executive branch of government, or even of Congress?

It's an honest question, and I'm honestly requesting an answer that will provide me with some closure.

Please expalin.

Before the Night is Through / 11-02-10

Six random and unrandom thoughts as the election progresses.

1. Democrats may well have won the expectations game. Everyone and their dog's fleas saw the GOP House takeover coming. But there were three main story lines for tonight: Will the R's take the House? And how about the Senate? How many Democratic statehouses would flip?

By conceding the first point, then winning point two and scoring a couple crucial victories in point three (CO, CA, MA), the Democrats salvaged something of a split decision. Not in true value of seats won or lost, but in the expectations department. Don't misquote me: tonight was a bad, bad, bad night for the left. Bad. (At least for left-leaning incumbents.) But they still control one and a half branches of government, while pulling off a couple high-profile gubernatorial wins.

In short, they avoided a repeat of 1994.

2. Colorado Republicans are shooting themselves in the foot. Less than 10 percent for their gubernatorial nominee (and it's going to be close) means they receive minor-party status on the 2012 ballot, and share space with the Greens and others. Not a disaster, for sure -- motivated conservatives will find the dude with the R next to his name no matter where they put him. But Floridians can tell you that ballot design has a knack of finding a way to matter.

3. Tea Party successes (Paul in KY, Rubio in FL) figure to nudge Sarah Palin closer to a 2012 run. Please. Do it Sarah. For all the "Real" Americans out there. Best way for the R's to lose their hard-earned House? Put the least respected candidate in recent memory at the top of the ballot. I used to fear she would win if nominated. Now I am fairly certain she will not. So bring it on, Grisly Mama.

4. Locally, 65 percent of Washingtonians are rejecting an income tax that would have been levied strictly on those earning more than $200k (or $400k per household). Great. Now we too can inch closer to bankruptcy, just like the people from two states south, whose example we love to emulate. Way to go.

5. Oh boy, Nevada and Alaska could be lots of fun tonight. And tomorrow. And into December.

6. This is our third straight "wave" election. This doesn't happen in American political history, uh, ever. Well, now the GOP has to help govern. They've been really good at saying "No" without voters asking them why they want the unemployed to lose their home, children to go without health insurance, and Wall Street to be able to run wild again.

Maybe now the voters will see what "ideas" the R's have, and we can start to build momentum for a fourth wave in 2012... but first, my conservative friends, enjoy your partial victory for a day or so.

144 or Less, Vol. IV / 10-23-10

An interesting thing has happened as the 2010 campaign winds down.

With Republicans offering several immoderate candidates (Miller, O'Donnell, Angle, Paladino, Toomey) for Senate, two familiar figures have emerged as leaders of their respective parties.

President Obama for the D's; Sarah Palin for the R's. The former has been crisscrossing the country to help liberals retain the Senate; the latter has encouraged voters to elect Tea Party-approved candidates and give conservatives control of the House.

Both will probably succeed at their tasks -- which is a result I love.

Not because it divides government. But because an emboldened Palin, flush with kingmaking success, then becomes THE face of the right. And 39 percent of Republicans think she'd make a good president. Not 39 percent of Americans -- only counting R's here.

Just 25 percent of Americans view her favorably.

So keep visiting Iowa, Sarah.

(Word count: 143)

House of Palin / 7-4-09

Sometimes I feel like the last two years have been the golden age of U.S. politics.

We elected a black man president after he redefined campaign finance strategy. He defeated a woman for the nomination of his party, a party which was left for dead seven years ago but now trounces the opposition at every turn. Unthinkable deficits, brought on by the worst economic crash since the Great Depression, threaten the administration's overdue plans to reform health care and fix our broken energy policy. A Senate race that gives one party a filibuster-proof majority took eight months and several recounts to complete. As two wars rage on, you can look out and spot three bogeymen on the horizon: terrorism, climate change and Social Security.

And then there's Sarah Palin. In her persona, we have ourselves the most polarizing, unpredictable, riveting, intriguing, flabbergasting, compelling train wreck of a gifted politician since Ronald Reagan.

So when Palin, in her mavericky way, announced on Thursday her resignation from the governorship of Alaska, effective in three weeks, the Internet almost broke.

Theories explaining her stunning decision have cascaded online in waves of millions. There are a few that are gaining traction, best as I can tell. They are:

a) She thinks resigning is a good move politically; why waste time governing a piddly state when you can be a national figure at the time of your party's greatest need?

b) Criminal charges are coming. (Try this one or any of these on for size.)

c) She's got some personal troubles or family troubles to attend to, and she'd rather do so as a private citizen. (Substance abuse, even greater family dysfunction, blackmail, grave illness all spring to mind.)

These theories have merit. In fact, why not two or three at once? This is, after all, Sarah Palin we're talking about here. But, in boring fashion, I'm simply of the mind that she's like everyone else: she's cashing in while she still can.

Faced with a job with little security, intense public pressure and a looming mega-crisis (Alaska's future budget woes are said to be on par with California's), who wouldn't be looking for something cushier? And what if that cushier job paid in the millions of dollars annually? And involved soaking up gallons of love on a daily basis from adoring fans? And getting to say the mavericky things you always wanted to say but didn't, out of what little self-preservation you had?

Yep, Mrs. Palin is bound for a good old-fashioned ka-ching payday. Or five. Her book advance is -- cue the violins -- a paltry $7 million. Her potential radio audience should rival Rush's. She'll always automatically have a job with Fox News and a hundred speeches lined up on the lecture circuit at any given time.

But like I said, just because she's takin' it to the bank, that doesn't exclude a) or b) or c) from earlier on. I'd even expect one or more of those scenarios to play out. She probably would envision herself as a tested, wiser outsider in the 2016 presidential primaries. She probably has broken various laws as governor. She probably has plenty more personal drama up her sleeve.

I could write five hundred words on her incoherent, oddly puerile resignation letter, posted here. I could spend another five hundred discussing the political strategy and timing, or lack thereof, she exhibited this week. I could write five hundred more on how I personally feel about her. (Since she and I are such great friends, yeah ya betcha!)

But I'm not sure she's all that complicated, and I'm not sure it's really a hard choice for her to leave the difficult job with the decent paycheck for the undemanding job with the filthy salary. Would that very same choice be agonizing for any of us?