Little-known fact: Iowans vote tonight!(Well-known fact: Never resist a sarcasm-based joke! Ever never)
I like to predict events. Sometimes, when I'm really on my game, I can even foresee things before they happen. Like tonight, for example. Spoiler: The guy to the left is going to grin even wider after they count the votes.
At the Iowa Republican caucus-thingy taking place this evening, here is the order of finish I'd like to predict:
1. Ron Paul, 24 percent
2. Rick Santorum, 23 percent
3. Mitt Romney, 21 percent
4. Newt Gingrich, 13 percent
5. Rick Perry, 9 percent
6. Michele Bachmann, 8 percent
7. Jon Hunstman, 2 percent
Taking those numbers one step further, that would mean 24 percent for the outsider, 36 percent for the establishment and 40 percent for the evangelical/TP crowd. It's also the recipe for a serious fracture down the road, and if not in 2012, then some other year. The sooner the better!
My job as a clairvoyant pundit is done here. Next post: some analysis of the actual results, but only if an accident of fate causes them to turn out any different.
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