Vouch Across America / 01-28-12

Starting in 2014, as per the health care legislation enacted in 2010, help with insurance costs is coming your way.

Yep, in two years, the government will assist you financially, if necessary, through tax credits, in obtaining health insurance. If you make less than four times the federal poverty level (presently $22,350 for a family of four), that is. Cash money, direct from the evil, wasteful, God-hating federal government; cash money to help you not die.

Joking is fun. So is seriousness: I'm genuinely excited for the program to start. The uninsured are a serious financial drain on our health care system; too many bankruptcies are caused by escalating health care bills; people ought to be able to get medical care no matter their financial situation, just as a matter of principle, otherwise, what kind of society are we trying to run?

But once the government gets involved in keeping us healthy, where do we go from there? I'd like to dream, just for an evening, of a land where even more basic needs are guaranteed.

I'd like to dream of a similar voucher program that ensures every citizen has a roof over his or her head and enough to eat every night. Yes, every American, housed and fed, with a significant helping hand from the United States Treasury.

After all, if we're going to require everyone to participate in the pool of doctor's patients, doesn't it make even more sense to require everyone to have housing? Or food? Those needs are more basic than paying for pills and prevention.

Imagine with me, John Lennon-style, a nation where the poor receive a monthly government check for x dollars to defray housing costs, another check for x dollars to cover food expenses, and a third one to help purchase health insurance.

Imagine that the check for housing can only be used for housing, and so forth. Imagine that the smaller your AGI, the bigger the check. Imagine that these vouchers extend all the way to households making $100,000 annually, and that they're adjusted for the county in which you live. (Two grand's not going as far in San Jose as it is in Tuscaloosa.)

Imagine a middle-class family of four that makes $80,000 and receives, each year, $1,500 for housing, $500 for food and $4,000 for health insurance assistance.

Guess what happens when $6,000 of that family's basic needs are met in advance of all other costs? It's not hard to see that such a family avoids debt better, invests more, saves more, spends more.

And yes, there would be guidelines on how the assistance would be spent. It wouldn't be possible for a degenerate gambler to cash the housing check at a MoneyTree and blow it all on Powerball tickets. The food check would apply fully toward purchases at grocery stores but only count halfway at fast "food" joints. Fraud would be prosecuted. It could work.

I dream.

Well, maybe you're of the opinion that the rich don't deserve the "punishment" of paying for the poor and the middle class's basic needs. OK, I can respect that. I just don't agree with it. The way I see it, everyone benefits from a strong middle class, a decrease in homelessness, a more just health care system. And even if it costs the ultra-rich some extra disposable income every year, I'm prepared to defend this version of Robin Hoodness as extremely moral... on a national scale.

No, some poor dude should not be allowed to break into some rich dude's home and help himself to a few thousand dollars. But when we're talking about making sure that our poorest citizens -- those who are stuck in dead-end minimum-wage jobs, or (heaven forbid) choose to teach for a living -- have enough to feed their kids without maxing out their credit cards, then yes, I fully support an aggressive redistribution of cash money. (I like saying "cash money." Cash money. MONEY MONEY MONEY)

I will make no apologies for my fervent desire to implement a truly progressive tax system, my waking dream to see us return to the rates we had in the 1950s, with a top tax bracket at 90 percent, the upper middle class paying half their income in taxes, and Americans everywhere being helped by their government, not hindered by it.

Or, Mitt Romney can continue to pay less than me in taxes, that's fine too. Whatever. That's sustainable, ethical and desirable. Let's keep doing it that way. Yeah.

144 Or Less, Vol. XII / 01-25-12

The more people hear Mitt Romney speak, the less they like him. Results since the actual voting phase of the campaign began bear this out.

The more people discover about his past, the less they like him. And why not? There's so very much to dislike. The putrescent tax records, the silver spoon, the Seamus rooftop story, the inability to hold a political position longer than is convenient.

Not a winning combination when trying to secure your party's presidential nomination.

So it won't be Mitt who headlines the hideous 2012 bumper stickers. I've said this before, but I was only somewhat believing myself then. Now Me has convinced I of my rectitude, and would wager serious amounts of pretend money on his non-nomination (his nonimation?), assured of my future victory.

After all, anagram of Willard Romney: Mr. Winey Dollar. Coincidence? Pffff.

(Word count: 143)

If Not These Guys, Then Who? Glad You Asked / 01-21-12

Three states have voted. Three men have won.

And still, not one of them will be the Republican nominee. Spoiler: The nominee will come from the list three paragraphs ahead.

Quick summary of my rationale: There's too much flip and way too much flop in Mitt Romney, and a quarter of his base thinks he's in a cult. There's too much baggage in Newt Gingrich; really, there's too much Newt in Newt Gingrich. Or not enough room in Newt for all the Newt in Newt's head. Something. Meanwhile, Ron Paul's in for the long haul, but he's not going to get more than 20 percent of the delegates -- which is enough to make him a serious player, but not nearly enough to win the prize. And Santorum, as will have been discussed in a future post sometime in the future, is distasteful to anyone whose political ideology falls left of Jerry Falwell. He can't win the general, and thus can't win the nomination. Republican primary voters and party bigwigs are far, far, far too pragmatic to allow an unelectable standard-bearer, especially when the incumbent president is less than popular and the economy is less than vibrant.

Well, those are the only four guys officially running. And yet, the nominee has to be someone else, someone who hasn't won a primary or a caucus, someone who has not been mortally wounded in the campaign thus far. So, also out are Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Jon Hunstman and Herman Cain.

A moment of silence seems appropriate. But screw that. The spoiler alert is expiring. Ready? Potential nominees include, in mostly alphabetical order: Chris Christie. Mitch Daniels. Elizabeth Dole. Mike Huckabee. Tim Pawlenty. Marco Rubio. Jeb Bush, too. (Yes, Jeb. I know. I know. I KNOW. You know I know. Everyone knows. Still.) And, uh, yeah, Sarah Palin.

If I had to rank them, from most to least likely to leave the 2012 Republican Convention (Official Motto: "Made You Look!") as the nominee, I'd have to go with:

1. Pawlenty

2. Huckabee

3. Dole

4. Rubio

5. Christie

6. Daniels

7. Bush

8. Palin

9. Someone Else

I reserve the right to alter these percentages after a few more primaries and caucuses. With every passing day, Someone Else rises in the polls anyway. But let's start from the bottom of the barrel.

Palin: Unelectable, yet also immortal. No human device can slay her. So should you ever cross her off the list? No matter the list? Yeah no. Learn your lesson already. Verdict: LESS THAN 1 PERCENT.

Bush: From Florida and still immensely popular there. That's all I have to say on that topic. The other things I would say have already been thought by you. Verdict: 5 PERCENT.

Daniels: Moderate from Indiana. Appealing to all wings of the party. Probably saving himself for 2016, but lust can broadside even the best intentions. Verdict: 5 PERCENT.

Christie: Same boat as Daniels. Well, no, different boat. A sturdier boat, I'd say. (Yes, that's a fat joke. I am not a proud man.) Verdict: 5 PERCENT.

Rubio: Here's where things start to get interesting. The Rubio Resume: two years in the Senate, young rising star, fresh face, likeable, great backstory, especially appealing to an important demographic group, chance to make some electoral history. Sound familiar? He'd have to overcome all the experience-based criticisms lobbed at that Obama dude four years ago, only from the other side. Entertainment value sizeably increased by watching his defenders turn into actual pretzels, fending off the same attacks they used in '08. Verdict: 10 PERCENT.

Dole: Just a gut feeling here. Total hunch. Don't have much to base it on, except having seen her name in the news from time to time in the last few weeks. She ran briefly in 2000, dropped out before the primaries, and her wikipedia page is a fascinating read. Problem is, she'd be 76 at the convention. Patriotic age, but advanced age, and that plays poorly. Verdict: 20 PERCENT.

Huckabee: Basically tied Romney in the '08 Contest To Earn The Right To Get Destroyed By The Democrat. Populist social conservative. Why is he not running again? Oh yeah, Fox "News" money. That only goes so far. Verdict: 25 PERCENT.

And, finally, Pawlenty: Undamaged goods. Dropped out before Iowa, so has not been numerically rejected by the voters. Yes, he had trouble in polling throughout 2011, and yes, he had trouble fund-raising, but at a hung convention where the party elites are just trying to avoid disaster, he's an ex-governor of a blue state, a man with few skeletons, if any, in the closet, an electable guy, not unattractive to independents, a guy whose worst fault is blandness. In short, Pawlenty's the exact opposite of disaster. Verdict: 30 PERCENT.

Pressed for an answer right now, I'd say the nominee will be either Pawlenty or Huckabee. But this election season has been quite instructive in that it's taught me to expect the unexpected... sigh. Swell. Just swell. Now what can I find to put in the "unexpected" box?

Oops, Mitigated / 1-3-12

Earlier today, when I could still claim youth and inexperience, I forecast a photo finish between Paul, Santorum and Romney -- in that order -- at the Iowa Caucuses.

So, yeah, oops. That prediction was meant for entertainment purposes only, and I hope you took it that way. Turns out Romney and Santorum tied at 24.6 percent, with Paul behind at 21.5 percent. (The men at the top each scored six delegates in the nomination race; Paul nabbed four as a consolation prize.)

Now let me mitigate my giant oops a little. In the second half of the early post, I explained why a Paul-Santorum-Romney-everyone else finish creates problems for Republicans who want to win in November. It divides the party into about one fifth libertarian, two fifths TP/Evangelical, and one fifth moderate/establishment.

Well, although the top three didn't finish in the order I anticipated, look at these aggregated results:

Paul: 21.5 percent. About one fifth.

Santorum/Perry/Bachmann: 40.0 percent. About exactly precisely two fifths.

Romney/Gingrich/Hunstman: 38.5 percent. Yeah, you found the last two fifths.

The first group doesn't want to vote for the other two in the fall. The second and third groups are equal in representation but their agendas don't match. Whoever the nominee is will have some decrepit bridges to mend, because the other wing of the party will make its reservations known. And these won't be Obama-Clinton-2008-style reservations -- those two Democrats showed little to no policy differences throughout the primary season. No, the chasm is huge in the GOP. Santorum and Romney might easily belong to altogether different parties, from the stark difference in their political records.

At this point, final Iowa numbers are pretty to look at, but also pretty insignificant. The Republicans still have a faction problem even if Romney pulls out a 20-vote win (out of more than 120,000 votes) or Santorum edges the Massachusetts Silver Spooner by an fetus's fingernail.

And Paul's 21 percent aren't closing shop anytime soon.

The voting also confirmed a fun trend that polling suggested throughout 2011: Romney has a 25 percent glass ceiling outside of the Northeast. Interesting to see if that changes after a couple decorative candidates drop out. (Yes, Rick, yes, Michele, I'm talking directly to you, and thanks for reading.)

All in all, good entertainment tonight. Which reminds me, I still owe you guys an answer to "If not Romney, then who?" and "If not Gingrich, then who?" and "If not Paul, then who?" That's coming soon too. Spoiler (I love spoilers): It ends with "If not Santorum, then who?"

[UPDATE, 11:58 p.m. PDT: Romney 30,015, Santorum 30,007 is tonight's "final score." Wow. The top three finishers all get seven delegates apiece. Which is splendid.]

Drive-By Iowa Prediction / 1-3-12

Little-known fact: Iowans vote tonight!

(Well-known fact: Never resist a sarcasm-based joke! Ever never)

I like to predict events. Sometimes, when I'm really on my game, I can even foresee things before they happen. Like tonight, for example. Spoiler: The guy to the left is going to grin even wider after they count the votes.

At the Iowa Republican caucus-thingy taking place this evening, here is the order of finish I'd like to predict:
1. Ron Paul, 24 percent
2. Rick Santorum, 23 percent
3. Mitt Romney, 21 percent
4. Newt Gingrich, 13 percent
5. Rick Perry, 9 percent
6. Michele Bachmann, 8 percent
7. Jon Hunstman, 2 percent

Taking those numbers one step further, that would mean 24 percent for the outsider, 36 percent for the establishment and 40 percent for the evangelical/TP crowd. It's also the recipe for a serious fracture down the road, and if not in 2012, then some other year. The sooner the better!

My job as a clairvoyant pundit is done here. Next post: some analysis of the actual results, but only if an accident of fate causes them to turn out any different.